Well here's what I'm thinking, and be warned in advance, it's as cocky as ever :P I have mapped out a way to go that if this Tribe should somehow lose the next five challenges, I will be in the F2 of it. So from the top-down.
F3 is me/Cat/Paloma. Both of them would boot the other and keep me for F2
F4 is those three and Erinn. She is boss at challenges, pretty good to work with, unlikely to go running back to oldChaang come merge. All good reasons to keep her.
F5 add Ian to that set. Now going from 5 to 4 would be heartbreak for him. I want to set him up so he is in a 3 with me, and has a little underdog thing with Paloma, or even a 3 with Paloma/Erinn. He will think he is in just the best spot. Then he'll get dollied at 5.
The reason he gets to be here longer than the next two is down to loyalty I think. Should the above five get to merge, he will stick solid to his two threes later in the game, whereas either of Sekou or Cristina might go running..
F6 adds Sekou in here. He gets to stay longer than Cristina for the simple reason of keeping Erinn happy and unaware she is outnumbered until it's too late. I would actually rather switch Cris & Sekou around, but the Ian/Erinn relationship needs time to develop too.
So that leaves Cristina as tonight's boot should we lose. My 'conceding' of this point will make me look a little softer in Ian's eyes too.
But still, I'd really rather win.
