Okay so much shit is going down, it's time for a snapshot of my mind leading into this decision tonight.
Seuua is the easy one. Like I said above, should they pull out an unlikely win, I'll most likely save Cristina for a few reasons;
-She has literally no connections so it should be appreciated by her and she will happily become part of a new Refugee alliance.
-I can work this so Penny & Daniel believe it's in their benefits too, I gift them a solid majority for a start, and if/when they make merge you'd better be damn sure I'll be taking the credit and looking to collect on a favour.
-Cristina has some good challenge strength, which is something Refugee Camp is srsly lacking.
-If Yul is actually outside an alliance of Penny/Daniel/Katie/Ian/Mike like I believe he is, their next three boots should then be Lisi/Nat<3 and then Yul - you can be sure I'll jump on a chance to take out a challenge whore this early. Should they choose to keep Yul (or Mike wants to keep Nat<3, or Penny the same for Lisi), they do so at the expense of shattering that alliance, and possibly bringing Penny/Daniel closer to me.

Over on
Chaang things are a little more complicated; My first thought was to just save Catalie, but I think at this point that is unnecessary. I've lived at the board today, it's almost like a merge round for me. I want this decision to not just be a this round decision, but a long-term one since I'll not have much influence the next few days.
Yesterday I said that I would hate to have to choose between Alina and Catalie. Today I know it's Catalie for sure. Alina has been caught with her hand in the cookie jar in an alliance with Monica/Nay/Ty & Corinne. I don't mind it, she's gotta take care of herself and set up options, but she never told me about it. & I do not take kindly to hearing this stuff second-hand.
A nod to Monica here, even if she was planning on going the other way, she was still smart enough to
pretend it was a shamlliance and fill us in on it in advance.
NayNay :/ NayNay is even worse, she asked me this afternoon to save Catalie, which confirms not only did she intend on following through with that one, but that she still is!

But now everyone knows about it, and everyone knows everyone knows about it. Whether it actually happens or not hinges on my decision tonight.
The way I see it I have three options;
1) Save an ally, namely
Catalie. Just do it, keep her safe. we buy a day to figure out what next. But doing this practically forces the hands of Nay/Alina/Monica to take the easy route, and may condemns Taj/Erinn to be next boots.
2) Steal a number from the other side, I'm looking at
Tyson here. This would a) shut down a shitload of Corinne's options and make her a far less attractive route to go down for all of Alina/Monya/Nay/Coach. Plus Tyson has suddenly a lot less options and might become a valuable ally for the refugee alliance. He's pretty great to talk to in fairness to him.
3) 'Save' one of my wishy-washy numbers -
Monica or
Alina I guess. Force the others to choose sides. idk, I don't really like this option but somewhere in the back of my head I'm thinking I really should consider this one. It has the benefit of me getting a lot more influence over the following refugee than if I choose Ty or Cat.
idk, idk, Catalie has finally shown up, so I'm gonna hammer this one out with her.